How well is the Indian economy picking up?

Till a while back, a lot of uncertainty surrounded the rebound of the Indian economy. The June quarter saw a growth of 8.8% due to increase in private demands and investment demands. This rate of growth in expected to last the coming months. The fact that real estate rates are picking up and the car market is regaining momentum reflect this growth rate.

There are two factors that support this assumption. First, that the employment market picking up. Recruitment firm Manpower conducted an Employment Outlook Survey recently according to which the next three months would see robust hiring in India. The public administration, education and services sectors are likely to see the highest rates of hiring. The second is the huge FII inflows that India has been witnessing recently. The Indian Sensex is likely to reach the 20000 mark thanks to the large chunks of cash expected to come in. Overseas investors are showing tremendous interest in India and they would be interested in picking up local stocks.

The flipside is that a number of analysts still believe that India is not there yet when it comes to economic growth. This is primarily because India gets a huge chunk of its business from the US, UK and Japan, which are still reeling under the economic downturn. Equity analysts in particular believe that stocks are overvalued and we must expect a correction sooner or later.

Where the US, UK and Japan are still struggling to bring down unemployment levels, the next three months are likely to see heavy hiring in India. The International Monetary Fund director Dominique Strauss -Kahn has said that for the economic crisis to end, unemployment has to go down.

The challenge will be to see if India is able to maintain this growth despite the recession that the rest of the world is yet to recover from. Countries such as China and Taiwan have witnessed growth along with India. They have an advantage compared to India because of the outsourcing services that Indian economy is heavily reliant upon. The good part is that the Indian economy is growing out of outsourcing. The number of entrepreneurs is picking up and the manufacturing sector has seen a double digit growth.

Certainly, India is going to witness an upturn. And it is going to last. How far it will take the growth story is what we’ll wait and see.